Monday, September 17, 2012

Winter is coming...

Winter is coming...for those who have read GRR Martin's series of books, that phrase has more than one meaning.  I think it applies to the here and now as well.

On the one hand, NASA is predicting the current solar cycle (#24) to be significantly lower than #23. Cycle #24.  There was also an article released by NASA stating that current predictions for #25, set to begin after 2021, will be even lower.  Cycle #25.  Now, when that big hot yellow round thing up in the sky fails to put out as much solar energy, what do you think will happen??  Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner!  Yes, it will be cooler here on the 3rd rock from the Sun!

This year's US winter forecast from the ECHO storm team bears this out also.  ECHO Forecast.  From their forecast, 2/3 of the country is looking at a normal to severe winter temperatures, and most of the US is looking at an increase in precipitation in one form or another.

On the other hand, I think the Arab Spring is over, and we are now looking at the Arab Winter.  If you have not had your head in the sand (or other places where the sun don't shine) recently, you will have noted news from that region of the world isn't so spiffy any more.  Embassies have been attacked.  Embassy staff murdered. More reports of jihadists in uniform attacking their trainer troops and the local police forces.  Sadly, this latter event does not surprise me at all.  TPTB should have seen it coming.  And I expect, that when we pull out our major regular units , we will simply leave behind vast stockpiles of ammo and weapons, which will then make their way into the wrong hands by theft, or black market sales.

The real important question in my mind, is What will Israel do, and when will they do it?  You know what I mean...will they attack Iran's nuclear program, and will they initiate a nuclear exchange, or respond to an attack that way?  Even if they stay conventional, the resulting mishmash is likely to bring down the House of Cards that is the Euro, assuming the Euro survives that long!  Especially if the Straits of Hormuz get compromised.  That would interrupt the flow of oil to Europe, and other places.

Crashing the Euro, will have a significant effect on the US economy, no matter what the .gov says.  Our banks are far too heavily involved in propping up the Euro to not be affected.  Even China will feel the effects, since if we crash, we will stop buying their stuff.  Think about it.  It could get ugly.

It's only mid September here in the South, and already Fall has arrived.  This week's forecast has temps down into the 40's to 50's for lows.  You can feel it in the air...

Winter IS Coming!

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